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Interpretation Of The Development Trend Of Machine Tool Industry In 2010
1, 2009 Review of the economic operation
A variety of statistical data from the current point of view, machine-building industry has stabilized to pick up, but there is still an indication of instability. Outlook 2009 fourth quarter economic data and the “Shier Wu” planning readiness is the industry environment for the development is still “dangerous” “machine” in half, as long as the whole industry to seize the opportunity and strive hard to deal with properly, the industry is expected to continue to achieve stable and healthy development. Machine tool industry in the development of popular industry-wide impact of machine-building industry, analyze the situation of the industry helps us to clearly determine the movement of machine tool industry.
1.2009-year Machinery Industry Development features:
(1) The machine-building industry in 2009 achieved a steady growth, although the growth rate greater than the 2008 drop, but still faster growth. 2009 gross industrial output value a ~ 2.90% increase year on year in February, 1 May rose 6.31 percent, 1 to August rose 9.70 percent, the month in September grew 17.88% and the growth rate significantly increased, with growth in machine tool industry 8.44%.
(2) marketing more difficult, but the convergence of a more normal production and marketing. Nearly three years of rapid growth has stimulated production capacity expansion, and strengthen macro-control to market demand, a gradual return to normal, which gradually intensified the contradiction of supply exceeding demand, sales more difficult; but most companies have taken various measures to actively strain, so industry-wide sales rate is still normal.
(3) a marked decline in efficiency and profits fell. Machinery Industry in 2009 1 June cumulative: total assets of the contribution rate of 9.31 percent, down 1.04 percentage points; cost margin 5.27%, down 1.22 percentage points; sales profit rate 4.97%, down 1.09 percentage points; to achieve Profit for the first time in nearly three years of negative growth, but year on year decline in the monthly reduced; 1 ~ 2 months increased by -25.81%, 1 ~ May grew -7.73% in August increased by 1 ~ -6.83% (including machine tools Industry Growth -11.88%).
(4) the export decline, the surplus reduction. 2009 1 August total exports of 121.809 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of -24.71%, total imports of 110.8 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of -23.53%, import and export surplus of 11.033 billion U.S. dollars. 2009 1 June cumulative trade surplus in 2008 than in the same period of 18.3 billion U.S. dollars.
(5) The output of major products continue to rise. 2009 1 August total included statistics express the output of major products in 2008 than in the same period in the majority of growth: large and medium tractors 163,118 units, up 18.72 percent; CNC machine tools 93335 Taiwan, up 10.40%; 71.34 million kW power generation equipment yuan, down 14.39 percent, although the decline, more and abroad, China’s total output of power generating equipment is still highest in the world; 8.458 million vehicles, up 19.99%, of which 5.113 million cars, up 27.72%.
(6) The macro-control policy orientation are different, different in different development of the industry trend. Stable trend in the overall context of development, to electricians, heavy-duty mining, petrochemical major technology-based general-purpose equipment manufacturing industry to continue to maintain a rapid growth; to the automotive and construction machinery, represented by transportation and construction machinery and equipment manufacturing as well as mainly for their matching internal combustion engine much slower manufacturing growth; while agricultural machinery and food packaging machinery industry grew significantly accelerated the development of other sectors were relatively stable.
2009 1 to August year on year growth rate of industrial output value of various industries: agricultural machinery industry, 22.71%, 2.50% internal combustion engine, engineering machinery 17.66%, instrumentation 4.00%, culture and office equipment declined by 7.27%, affected large general petrochemical 8.45 %, heavy mining machinery 15.76%, 8.44% machine tools, electrical appliances 7.21%, 11.16% common basic parts, food packaging machinery 20.85%, automobile industry, 7.26%, 27.59% other civilian machinery.
2. Data analysis of various key industries
Electric industry: power generation equipment representative products. In 2008 both the growth rate of output or have been created in the world. 2009 1 ~ 8 monthly output has reached 71.34 million kW. In its lead, power transmission equipment manufacturing industry has continued to Zou Wang, an increase of 11.29%.
Heavy Mining Machinery: Although the macro-control of some medium and small iron and steel, cement enterprises have greater impact, but large-scale iron and steel and cement companies were not affected, but also accelerated the pace of bigger and stronger, so the overall demand for heavy mining equipment and the production and marketing situation has not were significantly affected, order to maintain a high level. 2009 1 to August industrial output value increased by 15.76%, higher than the industry average of 6 percentage points.
Agricultural machinery and food packaging machinery: the overall development continue to heat up. 2009 1 August total, agricultural machinery industrial output value increased by 22.71%, higher than the industry more than 12 percentage points; agricultural products, the representation of products – large and medium tractors, 1 ~ 8 monthly production of 15 million units, in the substantial growth in 2008, based on the further growth of 6.82% year on year, indicating strong support because of the country, “three rural” agricultural machinery industry has ushered in a spring. Food packaging machinery manufacturing industry has gradually picked up.
Machine tool industry: the growth rate continued to fall. 2009 1 August total industrial output value increased by 8.44%, but the following two points should cause great concern: First, as imports rose faster, so domestic machine tool market share of 39.5% from 2005 to decline further in 2008 38.7%; second output of CNC machine tools since 2009, the growth rate fell rapidly, 1 June cumulative increase of nearly three years has been more than 40% down to 18.61%.
3.2009 overall analysis of the year
Combination of factors, an overall analysis of the entire industry machinery industry in 2009 continue to maintain the same basic trend of steady development. Compared with 2008 the annual output value and sales revenue will grow about 12% and profits will be a slight decline in export earnings will be reduced by 25%. And medium-sized tractors produced up to 25 million units, breaking the record; power generation equipment production reached about 80 million kW; CNC machine tool production to nearly 13 million units; vehicle production more than 13 million, to achieve expected to grow by about 20% in early target; of these output of more than 7.6 million cars, an increase of 22% or more.
2, 2010, machine tool industry trend forecasting
1. Trends affecting the industry in 2010 Analysis of environmental factors
(1) from the macro-economic environment, 2010 will continue to maintain a relatively rapid GDP growth in 2010 is “Eleventh Five” plan the completion of the year, has 17 large, “Shier Wu” plan outlines the blueprint. Against this backdrop, the whole country was filled with enthusiasm and development. Based on estimated economic growth in 2010 will not be too low, GDP growth is expected in 2009 compared with about 8% of the increase will be close to 10%, of which the secondary industry will grow at more than 13%.
To ensure policy continuity and stability will be the Government’s macroeconomic regulation and control of the tone. In 2008 macro-regulation achieved significant results, based on the 2009 macro-economic situation continues to develop towards the target, the effect of macroeconomic regulation and control is increasingly apparent. Overall judgments, macro China Metal Processing Online Copyright steady growth of the economy is already in the period, this excellent hard-won situation, it is necessary to prevent further decline, and also to prevent over-investment, focusing on short-term action to prevent the investment in the economic situation has become understanding of the mainstream view. Is expected to maintain the policy continuity and stability will be the 2010 Government in the economic macro-control work mood.
2010, total fixed asset investment growth will show a slow deceleration of the trend growth rate in 2009 will be 22.9% to 20%. In the scientific development, the transformation of economic growth under the guidance of new development ideas, over-reliance on investment-led approach to development under control. At present a serious overcapacity in some sectors in some areas of potential over-investment in fixed assets has been inhibited.
As I am slowing export growth, international trade surplus dropped sharply, trade frictions are increasing, coupled with appreciation of the renminbi, the 2009 export growth is expected to slow; the other hand, the state will adjust the export tax rebate policy, which will actually export enterprises received tax rebate increase to help the enterprises to expand exports. Is expected to import and export growth in 2010 will be held in 12% and 14% or so.
(2) from the machine-building industry operating environment, “the State Council on the revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry planning” has been introduced, which will be the development of machine-building industry to create an enabling environment. “Revitalization Plan” is characterized by clear objectives and strong orientation; focused, easy to focus; measures China Metal Processing Online Copyright specific, gold content; organizations to implement, which will help co-ordination.
Drop in the stabilization of the current domestic market, companies are expected to rebound in orders; steel prices drop potential is inhibited, machine-building industry in 2010 increased the pressure of rising costs; power shortage has eased, supply is expected over previous years; international crude oil prices rebound, tightening of domestic refined oil supply and demand; the international industrial transfer of development slowed, but still a huge undertaking the transfer of space.
2.2010 years, machine-building industry forecasts the development trend of the major sub-sectors
The overall trend of steady development, major sub-sectors of the trend vary. The underlying trend will continue, the pattern of the second half of 2009: power equipment, heavy-duty mining equipment, petrochemical equipment and other major technologies and equipment and agricultural equipment manufacturing growth will remain above the industry average; automobile, engineering machinery, basic parts, internal combustion engine All rights reserved China Metal Machining Manufacturing growth will below the industry average, the machine tool industry growth will be much higher than the previous industry-wide average down to industry-wide average.
For the machine tool industry, with the automobile, motorcycle, heavy electrical major user industries such as investment peak of the fall speed of machine tool industry will continue to fall, is expected in 2010 about 10%.
For the general machinery manufacturing, to fans, compressors, air separation equipment, pumps, valves and other products, as represented by general machinery manufacturing, by the electrician, heavy-duty mining machinery, petrochemical equipment manufacturing industry supporting demand pull, is expected to be in 2010 to achieve 15% ~ 20% increase.
For the automotive industry, automobile industry is expected in 2010 will show a steady development momentum, with passenger cars being favored in the energy-saving products, production and sales of the increase in the proportion of low-emission vehicle, motorcycle industry as a whole is running tight, efficiency is far greater than the difficulties of growing production and sales, the overall projected growth rate of 14% or so.
For the agricultural machinery industry, in 2009 central and local financial subsidies to farmers to buy farm machinery will continue to increase the intensity, while continuing to take measures to enable farmers burdens increase in farm production and marketing situation is expected to continue to improve, the growth rate projected at 17% or so.
For the other sectors in 2010 growth forecast of around 12% of parts and components manufacturing, refrigeration and air-conditioning machinery manufacturing 9% ~ 11%, mold manufacturing 8% ~ 10%, about 18% of environmental protection machinery manufacturing industry, cultural and office machinery about 8% of the manufacturing sector, food and packaging machinery manufacturing about 15%, hydraulic, pneumatic, seals manufacturing 10% ~ 15%, about 10% of the printing machine manufacturing industry, bearing industry, 8% ~ 10%, 5% of internal combustion engine industry ~ 8%, engineering machinery manufacturing around 11%.
Interpretation
To sum up, the machine tool industry in 2010 may be about 10% of the growth of the data from the machine-building industry trade statistical analysis of view can be tenable. From the previous 30% or even 40% back to 10% growth in the financial crisis has brought to this industry is a rational regression, this regression can make machine business operators who, under practical thinking, carefully study the industry the law of development, lessons learned, research-based technology, independent innovation and development.
In this regard, die 100-hui Luo, CEO convinced that the financial crisis is like Ebb Tide, crisis, there is always a winner. While it is affecting the machine tool industry in the development of a variety of factors are entangled complexity of barriers to trade protectionism, domestic demand is still insufficient, but the difficulty is temporary after all, as long as our entrepreneurs are able to grasp the logic of crisis, there is always a strong winner confidence, there is hope for our industry.
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